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Perhaps the most difficult part of handicapping the NFL is accounting for injuries. The loss of Green Bay Packers running back Ryan Grant for the remainder of the regular season will certainly hurt Green Bay in large part due to the fact that the Packers lack depth at that position. His replacement Brandon Jackson is unproven to say the least. While Ryan Grant averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season, Green Bay is averaging just 3.4 yards per rush this season when excluding the rushes that Ryan Grant had in the first half of Green Bay's first game against Philadelphia. Obviously, a 1 yard per rush dropoff would significantly adversely affect any team's offense. However, the fact that Green Bay is primarily a passing team even with Grant in the line-up and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is a very mobile quarterback will both serve to lessen the blow to their offense resulting from Grant's injury. Hence, I estimate that the loss of Ryan Grant will hurt Green Bay about a half a field goal per game, or about 1.5 points.

Posted: Friday, 24 September 2010 12:31 AM

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