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Although I usually win my Super Bowl pick (I am now 10-6-1 on my Super Bowl picks) I unfortunately did not this season.  Despite betting on the team that I still believe is the most complete (and hence best) team in the NFL, the LA Rams came up short in Super Bowl 53 largely due to uncharacteristically horrible play calling by Head Coach Sean McVay as well as numerous costly penalties.  Why the team with the league´s leading rushing offense (going up against the 27th ranked rushing defense) chose to pass the ball 70% of the time in the Super Bowl is beyond me.  To his credit, Sean McVay admitted that his play calling was horrible and that he got outcoached by Belichick.  So I wound up finishing 1-1-1 in the playoffs this season.  It is worth noting that I have still performed well in the playoffs during the course of my NFL handicapping career, and I have gone a very solid 13-6-1 (10-6-1 on sides, 3-0 on teasers) on all of my playoff picks during the past five NFL seasons (2014-2018).      

Even though I had an admittedly disappointing performance during the second half of the season (after a spectacular 26-11-1 start during the first 7 weeks of the season), I still finished a profitable 53-44-4 (55%) on all of my plays this season, going 38-36-4 on my sides/straight plays and 15-8 on my teaser plays (all the standard 2 teams, 6 points).  Although I had a profitable season, I am still disappointed with my overall performance this season and during the past 2 NFL seasons overall.  The good news is that whenever I have had two sub-56% seasons in a row, I have always had a VERY strong performance during the subsequent season (hitting 64% in 2006, 59.4% in 2011, and 69% in 2014).  Hence I am due to have a very strong season during the 2019 campaign and I fully anticipate doing so.  But I will not rely on my history of very solid bounce back seasons in order to attain a very solid winning percentage during the 2019 NFL season.  I will study quite extensively during the offseason to fully prepare myself to have a very solid 2019 NFL season.  I will be damned if I allow the game to pass me by.

What is important to look at is a handicapper´s long-term record.  During the past 13 NFL seasons (2006-2018) since I launched my current website, I have gone a documented 879-682-52 (56.31%) on all of my plays, which is about 4 percentage points above the 52.38% winning rate that one needs to attain in order to break-even in the long-run.  Nickel bettors who have wagered on all of my plays during the past 13 NFL seasons have made a net profit of $64,450, which comes out to be an average of nearly $5,000 per NFL season.  If one had bet just 3% of their total betting bankroll on each of my plays during the past 13 NFL seasons he/she would have made a net return of 30%, which comes out to be 72% on an annualized basis since the NFL season is only five months long.  This is about seven times more profitable than the average annualized rate of return of investing in the stock market.  Hence wagering on my NFL games is seven times as profitable as investing in the stock market is and its 100 times more fun.

Remember to come back shortly before the 2019 NFL season begins.  That way, we will be able to make money together during the 2019 NFL season!  Feel free to e-mail me in regards to just about anything during the offseason.

Steve ¨Cubby¨ Drumm -    

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