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Winning NFL Handicapper
Pro Football Handicapping
In regards to how I have performed during recent NFL seasons, I had an absolutely terrific season during the 2014 NFL season. In fact I went a documented 74-34-3 (68.5%) on all of my plays, including a stellar 48-20-3 (71%) on my straight plays and a solid 26-14 on my teasers (almost always the standard 2 teams, 6 points). During the 2015 NFL season I went 57-67-3 overall (46%) as I went 33-40-3 on my straight plays, 22-26 on my teasers, and 2-1 on my team season win totals. During the 2016 NFL season I went a stellar 84-46-8 (65%) on all of my plays, as I went a documented 45-34-4 on my sides/straight plays, an amazing 36-10-3 on my teaser picks (mostly 2 teams, 6 points, 13 of them were 2 teams, 7 points), and 3-2-1 on my team season win totals. During the 2017 NFL season I finished exactly .500, as I went 51-51-7 (50%) overall. Specifically, I went 31-32-6 on my sides/straight plays and 20-19-1 on my teasers (all 2 teams, 6 points). During the 2018 NFL season I went a profitable 53-44-4 (55%) so far on all of my plays, going 38-36-4 on my sides/straight plays and 15-8 on my teasers (all the standard 2 teams, 6 points). This past season (2019) I went an admittedly abysmal 46-65-2 (41.44%) all of my plays, which was my worst season ever by far. My previous worst season was during 2015 when I hit on 46% of my plays. To break things down, I went 40-44-2 on my side plays, but my horrific record of 5-20 on my teasers (all 2 teams, 6 points) was my worst ever performance on teasers BY FAR. That is what really dragged me down this past season. I also went 1-0 on my game total plays this season, as I won my sole game total pick this season with my win in Super Bowl 54 on the UNDER (54.5). I also went 0-1 on my team season win totals plays this past season, as I lost my sole team season win total play on Buffalo UNDER 7.5 WINS.
The good news is that I almost always follow up losing seasons with winning, profitable seasons. In fact, this is the 23rd season that I have been handicapping the NFL, and I have suffered through two losing seasons in a row once in my handicapping career (2004-2005), and that was following five winning, profitable seasons in a row (1999-2003). The other good news is that I am off to a good start so far this season, as I am currently a perfect 3-0 on my side plays, 0-1 on teasers, and hence a profitable 3-1 overall.
My admittedly sub-par start this season not withstanding, what is important to look at is a handicapper's long-term track record. My record on all of my plays (counting sides, teasers, totals, and Team Season Win Totals) since the beginning of the 2006 NFL season (the year that I launched this website) is 928-748-54 (55.4%). Hence nickel bettors who have wagered on all of my plays during the past 14+ NFL seasons have made a net profit of $52,600, which comes out to be an average of nearly $3800 per NFL season. There are very few other NFL 'cappers that have matched my documented long-term success, and if they have, they almost certainly charge more for their picks than I do. My straight plays go up 10 minutes after kickoff on my "Track Me" page, so you know that I am telling you the truth. Ask yourself this question: If a 'capper is really confident that he will win, why wouldn't he do this? Having one's picks go up on the 'net 10 minutes after kickoff isn't just the best way to prove that one is a winner, it is the only way. Do the smart thing and come back to this website shortly before the beginning of the 2019 NFL season. You'll probably make a very healthy profit betting my NFL plays during the 2019 NFL season, as I have during 15 out of the past 20 NFL seasons.
I have 2 things that most sports 'cappers don't: talent and integrity. I won't insult your intelligence by claiming to win 75% of my picks in the long-run and you'll never hear me say "This game is a lock"! Nor will I tell you that I've been on Jay Leno twice. What I do offer are good, solid NFL picks that are virtually guaranteed to make you money in the long-run (notice how I said virtually guaranteed, in life there are no guarantees).
Such picks are based on a proven system with a proven track record of success. Such a system is not too simple, not too complicated, but just right! To paraphrase Rainman "I'm an excellent handicapper, I'm an excellent handicapper!" In fact, one of the reasons why I decided to go into the sports handicapping industry is because I like my competition, or lack there of.
Unlike most sports handicappers/touts, I'm an NFL-only picker. Since I specialize in the NFL, I am able to focus all of my attention and energy on the NFL. This way, I don't claim to be all things to all people. And since the NFL is the sport that is not only the most heavily bet on but also the sport that the public does the worst at, that makes the service that I provide an even hotter commodity. And because I am a contrarian by nature, it should come as no surprise that what the public does the worst at, I do the best at!
Steve 'Cubby' Drumm
WHY IT MAKES SENSE TO GO AGAINST THE PUBLIC!
One of the most effective ways to beat the NFL pointspread, particularly after the first 2 weeks of the regular season, is to go against the public. This is because the NFL is the sport that is not only the most heavily bet on but also the sport that the public does the worst at. In fact, the public wins less than 50% of the time, and hence they'd do better if they flipped a coin. Therefore, I naturally incorporate going against the public into my system. Specifically, I use my inside contacts to find out where the public is on games, and then usually go the other way (especially if the public is lopsided on a game, i.e. 70/30 or more). Since I am a contrarian by nature, going against the public comes naturally to me. I by no means do this blindly, as it accounts for about 30-35% of my system. But very rarely do I go with the public on a game that the public is lopsided on, and when I do, its almost always a small play. On the other hand, it is likely, but by no means certain, that I will go against the public in games, especially games that the public is lopsided on.
And contrary to popular belief, one can't look at line moves to determine where the public is on a game. This is true for several reasons. First, where the public is on a game (i.e. the number of people betting on each side in a game) and where the money is is not always one and the same. Often times the public will be on one side in a game and the money will be even or on the other side. Second, line moves are often determined by which side the wise guys play, not which side the general public plays. Third, often times the linesmakers adjust the line to take into account injuries that they did not know about earlier in the week. And fourth, the linesmakers often move the lines without concomitant action as a means of fooling the public, i.e. to get them to bet on the wrong side and/or to get more action on a game.
One may ask, why is it that the public does so poorly wagering on the NFL?
Well the fact that the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet on is precisely one of the main reasons why the public does worse on it than it does on all other sports. Serious betters, including wiseguys, have a tendency to bet most or all sports, as they are doing it to make money (they view their sports betting as a business). This serves in contrast with more casual betters, who wager primarily because they have an interest in the sport that they are betting on and/or are seeking a "rush". Since the NFL is not only the most followed sport in the United States but also the sport that people are most likely to get a "rush" off of betting, it naturally attracts a lot of casual betters. This, in turn, causes the skill level of the median better to be lower in the NFL than it is in other sports.
Additionally, since the NFL is the sport that is the most heavily bet on, that gives the bookmakers an incentive to concentrate a disproportionate amount of their attention and time on setting sharp NFL lines. Such lines are designed to maximize their profit margins for the NFL, and hence their overall profitability.
This brings me to my next point. The lines are set in such a way as to either get even action on a game or to get the majority of the people on the wrong side. How do bookmakers do this, you ask? Well first they decide what the true line, or what I like to call the "value line" is. Say, for example, that the Packers are playing the Bears at home, and the bookmakers determine that the true value line is Green Bay -6.5. This means that the bookmakers believe that if the Packers played the Bears 1,000 times in Green Bay (hypothetically, of course, with each team having the same players injured in each game as they do now), Green Bay would win by 7 points or more 500 times, with either the Packers winning by 6 points or less or the Bears winning straight-up the other 500 times.
However, contrary to popular belief, bookmakers don't stop there. They then gauge what the range is of what I like to call the "public perception line" (which reflects the opinion of the median better), i.e. the line that will evenly divide the public 50/50. Say, for example, that in the Packers/Bears scenario bookmakers determine that the public perception line is somewhere between Green Bay -8 and Green Bay -10. They'll naturally set the actual pointspread at Green Bay -8, because Green Bay -8 is the number within the public perception line range that is closest to the "value line". Thus, if it turns out that the public perception line really is Green Bay -8, the bookmakers will get even action on the game and they will be guaranteed to make the vigorish as a profit. To take things to the other extreme, if the public perception line is really Green Bay -10, then bookmakers will get a disproportionate amount of action on the Packers. Since the actual pointspread (Green Bay -8) is greater than the value line (Green Bay -6.5), the Bears would be the "right" side (or the smart side) to bet on. Hence, the majority of the public is on the wrong side of the game. And this example illustrates the main reason why when the public is lopsided on a game, they are usually on the wrong side.
WOULDN'T THAT BE GREAT, IF THE PERSON THAT YOU COULD TRUST THE MOST, WAS YOUR SPORTS HANDICAPPER?
Posted: Friday, 14 November 2014 10:20 PM
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